Hash Rate Calculator
Expected wait is a mean, not a schedule.
Work out Hash Rate. Expected wait is a mean, not a schedule. States the assumption instead of hiding it.
Expected wait for a block, solo
114.2 years
1.667e-5% of the network · 7.2 a day in electricity
The expected time is the mean of an exponential distribution, not a schedule. Solo mining at a small share of the network is a lottery: an expected wait of four years is equally likely to be six months or twelve, and there is no accumulating progress toward the next block. That variance is why pools exist. Pooling converts a rare large payout into frequent small ones with the same expected value, which is worth a small fee to almost everyone below industrial scale. Efficiency in hashes per joule is what decides whether mining is viable, not raw hash rate. Difficulty adjusts to total network power, so the only durable advantage is producing more hashes per unit of electricity than the competition.
How the Hash Rate Calculator works
Your share of network hash rate, the expected wait for a block, and what the electricity costs while you wait. The expected time is the mean of an exponential distribution — solo mining is a lottery, not a queue.
Also known as: how long to mine a block solo · mining profitability calculator · hashes per joule efficiency · share of network hash rate
Frequently asked questions
How long until I find a block solo?
Your share of the network hash rate times the blocks per day gives the expected rate. At a small share the expected wait runs to years, and there is no accumulating progress toward it.
Why is the expected time misleading?
Because it is the mean of an exponential distribution. An expected wait of four years is roughly as likely to be six months as twelve years — the process is memoryless and has no schedule.
Why do mining pools exist?
To trade variance for predictability. A pool converts a rare large payout into frequent small ones with the same expected value, which is worth a small fee to anyone below industrial scale.
What decides mining profitability?
Efficiency in hashes per joule, not raw hash rate. Difficulty adjusts to total network power, so the only durable advantage is producing more hashes per unit of electricity than the competition.
Does difficulty change the calculation?
Constantly. Difficulty adjusts to keep block times steady as network hash rate changes, so today's share and today's expected wait are both moving targets.
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