Win-Back ROI Calculator
Some of them were coming back anyway.
Incremental profit
$1,104
164 genuinely won back
35% of the people who responded were drifting back anyway, and you paid them $1,058 to do it. A holdout group is the only way to know what the campaign was actually worth.
How the Win-Back ROI Calculator works
A share of the people who respond to a win-back offer were drifting back regardless, and you just paid them to do it. A holdout group is the only way to know what the campaign was actually worth — and most brands never run one.
Not financial advice. Marketplace fees change, and they vary by country, plan and seller status. Every rate here is an editable default, not a quoted price — check the platform's current fee schedule before you price a product against it. This is not tax or business advice.
Frequently asked questions
How do I measure win-back incrementality?
Hold back a random portion of the lapsed list and compare their return rate against the treated group. The difference is what the campaign produced; everything above it was already happening.
What return rate is typical without any campaign?
It varies enormously by category, but a meaningful share of lapsed customers return unprompted. Assuming zero baseline return is the standard error in win-back reporting.
Should the offer be a discount?
Test it against a non-discount reactivation — a new product announcement, a reminder, a personal note. Discounts win more responses and cost margin on people who needed no incentive.
When is a customer worth winning back?
When their expected value exceeds the cost of the offer plus the campaign. Customers who churned over service failures are usually more winnable than those who simply stopped needing the product.