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Return Fraud Cost Calculator

False positives cost more than the fraud.

Written and maintained by Mohit PatelLast checked August 4, 2026How we build these
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Monthly fraud loss

$1,228

30 fraudulent returns

Loss with current detection$1,228
Loss with better detection$614
Cost of false positives−$772
Net gain from better controls−$1,058

False positives cost more than the fraud they prevent when detection is set too aggressively — a wrongly refused genuine return loses the customer, not just the order. Costing them at three times the order contribution is a conservative way to keep that trade-off visible.

How the Return Fraud Cost Calculator works

Detection set too aggressively costs more than the fraud it prevents, because a wrongly refused genuine return loses the customer rather than the order. Pricing false positives at several times the order contribution keeps that trade-off visible.

Not financial advice. Marketplace fees change, and they vary by country, plan and seller status. Every rate here is an editable default, not a quoted price — check the platform's current fee schedule before you price a product against it. This is not tax or business advice.

Frequently asked questions

What counts as return fraud?

Wardrobing — using and returning; returning a different or empty item; claiming non-delivery on a delivered parcel; and serial returning that exceeds any plausible genuine rate.

How common is it?

Estimates vary widely and self-reported figures from vendors selling detection tools should be treated carefully. What matters is your own data on serial returners.

How do I detect it without false positives?

Look at patterns across a customer's history rather than at single returns. One suspicious return proves nothing; a consistent pattern across many orders does.

What do I do about it?

Quietly restrict rather than confront — remove free returns, require original packaging, or decline future orders. Public accusations of fraud go badly wrong when the pattern turns out to be innocent.

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